Focus on the Tuscan tourist district: "The tourism industry and the Tuscan tourist district", drawn up by the Research, Intelligence & Investors Relations Area of the Monte dei Paschi di Siena Bank
Source - www.intoscana.it 06.04.2009
Tuscany is the top destination chosen by Italian tourists, i.e. it is leader in the so-called domestic tourism. At an international level, most tourists (approximately 42%) come from Germany and the USA.
2008 Facts & Figures:
- In 2008, tourism expenditure in Tuscany increased despite the slight drop in international tourist arrivals (-5.7%). In fact, in the period under consideration, the growth of tourism expenditure in Tuscany more than trebled the national average (+6.8%).
- The net balance of tourism payments in Tuscany remained positive, despite the continuing adverse economic conditions in Germany, the USA and Italy, which are the main players of Tuscan tourism.
- New emerging countries play a more and more relevant role with respect to expenditure, especially Russia (e.g. in Forte dei Marmi alone +72% arrivals in 2008 as against 2007).
- There was an increase in the demand for luxury travel, which is mainly concentrated in the Versilia area.
- A significant item of data is the per capita expenditure of tourists in Italy, as it shows that foreign tourists in Tuscany have a higher economic profile than the national average (approximately 180 € per capita expenditure in Tuscany as against a national average of 140 €).
- In Tuscany there are approximately 25,000 tourism enterprises (6.2% of the total). Florence is the leading city for number of tourism enterprises in Tuscany with a percentage of 23.4%. Livorno (9.1%) and Siena (8.5%) are the provinces with the highest percentage of tourism enterprises on the total number of enterprises, while Pisa, Prato and Arezzo have the highest growth rates.
Forecast for 2009:
Based on our analysis, in 2009 the tourism market in Tuscany will be affected by the probable decrease in international arrivals (while "domestic" demand should remain stable). However, our data concerning 2008 have already shown that tourism expenditure in Tuscany tends to be stabler than in other regions and that the negative economic cycle affecting the main countries of origin of tourists has a lower impact than in the rest of Italy.
Assuming that the macro-economic situation remains critical throughout 2009:
1. the decrease in international arrivals should not bring about a proportional decrease in international tourism expenditure, by virtue of the wealthier profile of tourists in Tuscany than in other regions.
2. the balance of payments should stay positive, thanks to growing expenditure from new emerging countries (oriented towards luxury travel) and thanks to stable expenditure from other countries whose tourist flows are more oriented towards art cities and seaside resorts.
3. the considerations made about international expenditure are also valid for domestic expenditure (the current estimated expenditure is 155 € in Tuscany, as against 127 € in the rest of Italy).
4. in the short term, tourism enterprises should be able to withstand the crisis, given that their structure is more based on the long term, that they have a higher leverage than the other enterprises of the region, and that their ratio of new bad debts to the stock of loans is within the national average (September 2008: 1.37% as against a national average of 1.24%, with a lower default rate than in other areas of the country).
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